The Poor Man's Guide to Market Assessment

By philip

Published on 28 April, 2025

Market Characteristics checklist based on Oaktree Capital's March 27, 2006 paper, "It Is What It Is". If more marks are made on the left-hand side column, saving money is recommended. The purpose of the list is to gauge the "market temperature" or mood of the current market today.

Economy:VibrantSluggish
Outlook:PositiveNegative
Lenders:EagerReticent
Capital Markets:LooseTight
Capital:PlentifulScarce
Terms:EasyRestrictive
Interest Rates:LowHigh
Spreads:NarrowWide
Investors:OptimisticPessimistic

SanguineDistressed

Eager to buyUninterested in buying
Asset Owners:Happy to holdRushing for the exits
Sellers:FewMany
Markets:CrowdedStarved for attention
Funds:Hard to gain entryOpen to anyone

New ones dailyOnly the best can raise money

GPs hold the cards on termsLPs have bargaining power
Recent Performance:StrongWeak
Asset Prices:HighLow
Prospective Returns:LowHigh
Risk:HighLow
Popular Qualities:AggressivenessCaution and discipline

Broad reachSelectivity
The Right Qualities:Caution and disciplineAggressiveness

SelectivityBroad Reach
Available Mistakes:Buying too muchBuying too little

Paying upWalking away

Taking too much riskTaking too little risk



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